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Economie Publique

UMR Economie Publique

Ph-D Thesis

Jaunė Vaitkevičiūtė : Econometric analysis of the impacts of climate change on agriculture and implications for adaptation, on November, 23th 2018

PhD presentations:

Jaunė Vaitkevičiūtė will defend het thesis "Econometric analysis of the impacts of climate change on agriculture and implications for adaptation" on November, 23th 2018 à 13h45, room 105 at Tours Demeter at AgroSup Dijon, 26 Bd Dr Petitjean - DIJON (21)
Abstract:
The agricultural sector faces the challenges of fueling a growing world population, sustainably managing natural resources and coping with climate change, which could expose this sector to major vulnerabilities. Yet agriculture has always played a relatively minor role in shaping the global agenda for climate change. The recent COP23 Koronivia Collaborative Agriculture Initiative is a unique opportunity to affirm the important role of climate action in agriculture. One of the key issues that has been raised is the development of methods and approaches to assess the adaptation, benefits and resilience of adaptation.
The aim of this thesis is to analyze the impacts of climate change on European agriculture with three contributions. First, it addresses the question of an adequate measure of the impact of climate on agriculture, in terms of methods, choice of climate variables and time horizon (short and long term). The second contribution concerns the econometric tools used and, more specifically, the consideration of individual heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation using panel-space data. The third contribution is related to the different spatial scales studied. The thesis proposes two case studies on agriculture at European level and a study on a French department.
The results show that European agriculture responds differently to short- and long-term climate impacts. Short-term impacts tend to be harmful because farmers do not have the time to adjust their activity at the same time as weather fluctuations. However, allowing adjustments and long-term adaptation to the impacts of climate change can be beneficial for all European agriculture, with the exception of southern regions where the climate will exceed optimal climatic conditions and generate adverse impacts. However, there may be heterogeneous impacts of climate change within the European regions studied. Thus, the case study of the Côte d'Or allows to have results at a finer level and shows that, given the local specificities, it is possible to capture both positive and negative impacts of climate change inside this small geographical scale.

 

Stellio Del Campo will defend his thesis "Interdépendances entre l’équité intra et intergénérationnelle dans la gestion durable des ressources environnementales" , on December, 17th 2018, from 14h, at  the Univesity Paris Nanterre.

Abstract: Cette thèse se propose de montrer l'intérêt de considérer simultanément l'équité intra et intergénérationnelle pour des questions liées à la gestion des ressources environnementales. Plus spécifiquement, la thèse examine les arbitrages entre ces deux dimensions de l’équité pour définir une distribution juste des ressources au cours du temps et au sein des générations. Les inégalités sont considérées à travers deux régions hétérogènes. Le premier chapitre se focalise sur le maintien du niveau maximal de bien-être au cours du temps, à travers le critère maximin, lorsque l'économie a une aversion aux inégalités intragénérationnelles. De manière contre-intuitive, la région la moins dotée en ressources paye un plus lourd tribut pour la durabilité globale. Le second chapitre étudie la croissance vers le niveau maximal soutenable de bien-être, la règle d'or. De la même manière, la région la moins dotée en ressources doit contribuer davantage à cette croissance, en limitant relativement plus sa consommation. Le troisième chapitre étudie les transferts qui doivent être opérés de la région relativement mieux lotie vers celle moins bien lotie. Le transfert doit être soit forfaitaire soit proportionnel à la consommation de la région contributrice, selon que l'objectif est de favoriser ou de limiter sa consommation. Dans tous les cas, la région la plus défavorisée reçoit un transfert compensatoire pour la contrainte qui lui est imposée.

 

Pasts presentations:

Barbara Langlois defended her thesis "Incitations économiques pour la régulation de la fourniture de bouquets de services écosystémiques dans les agroécosystèmes", on June, 11th 2018.

Abstract: Les agroécosystèmes font face à un déclin des services écosystémiques (SE) de régulation, non-marchands. Nous l’interprétons via deux concepts économiques : les biens publics qui appellent une régulation, et la production jointe qui souligne les conséquences des interactions entre SE dans leur régulation.
Cette thèse étudie comment accroître la fourniture de SE non-marchands par des incitations économiques, en prenant en compte la multiplicité des SE et les interactions entre eux.
Nous étudions d’abord la régulation des biens publics joints à l’aide de microéconomie théorique. Ensuite, nous menons une analyse appliquée avec des données agroécologiques simulées et des méthodes numériques pour définir les solutions coût-efficientes et les incitations pour leur mise en œuvre. Nous comparons plus particulièrement les incitations basées sur les actions et sur les résultats.
Nous montrons théoriquement que les interactions entre SE rendent leur régulation plus complexe, notamment avec des incitations basées sur les résultats, et quand le coût varie selon les bouquets de SE. Dans l’analyse appliquée, nous montrons que prendre en compte le coût de la fourniture des SE est crucial pour maximiser leur fourniture avec un budget limité. Nous montrons que les incitations basées sur les résultats sélectionnent les solutions coût-efficientes mais induisent un budget plus élevé que les incitations basées sur les actions, à cause des interactions entre SE. Enfin, nous montrons que l’analyse à l’échelle du paysage et l’hétérogénéité modifient les solutions qui maximisent les SE, mais pas les propriétés des deux types d’incitations.
Nos résultats soulignent que les politiques agro-environnementales doivent cibler les services écosystémiques de manière intégrée, si possible à l’échelle de la ferme ou du paysage et considérer le coût de leur fourniture. Les incitations basées sur les résultats ne sont pas la solution à tous les problèmes des politiques agroenvironnementales.

 

Marion Dupoux defended her PhD thesis entitled "Structure of preferences, decision-making and the environment: theoretical and experimental approaches", on January 16th, 2017.

Abstract :

Climate change encompasses a large range of impacts such as extreme climatic events, biodiversity losses or deforestation. These impacts are very heterogenous across countries. Additionally, countries distinguish one from another according to their preferences and/or their context (income and environmental quality levels). Before any implementation, projects which entail both economic and environmental impacts are evaluated. The main tool used for projects
appraisal is the cost-benefit analysis. It relies on the way (objective) quantities are accounted for and the way the environment is valued via the individual willingness to pay and over time via the discount rates. The two latter elements are based upon preferences and the context of decision.

This thesis aims at providing insights on the (objective and subjective) determinants of the heterogeneity of project evaluations. At first, I analyze how (objective) quantities are incorporated in the cost-benefit analysis. The first main chapter deals with the way cost-benefit analysis is affected by the time distribution of impacts considered. Through the example of land use change from biofuel production, I find that decisions regarding projects with non-constant
environmental impacts rely on distorted net present values, which may result in the implementation of actually non-desirable projects or the non-implementation of actually desirable projects. This work is both theoretical and numerical.

Second, I investigate the role of the structure of preferences, i.e. whether private goods and environmental goods are substitutable or complementary in providing utility, on individual decision-making in an individual framework and a collective framework. At the individual level (second main chapter), we develop a single theoretical model which allows either for substitutability or complementarity depending on the context (income and environmental quality). It results that the income elasticity of willingness to pay can be negative in contexts of between-goods substitutability, which contrasts with usual frameworks which only allow for positive income elasticities (thus the environmental good can never be inferior but is always normal). Our framework also affects the way consumption and environmental quality are discounted, which is all the more relevant in the context of income shocks. At the collective level (third main chapter), we use an experimental approach to analyze the effect of the interaction between individuals with different structures of preferences on contributions to the public good. It results that perfect substitutability is associated with more free-riding than complementarity. However, an aversion to advantageous inequality also emerges from individuals whose preferences underlie perfect substitutability towards those whose preferences are based on complementarity.

These results suggest that the structure of preferences, often overlooked, plays a major role regarding the way individuals value the environment, thus more globally regarding decisionmaking towards the environment.

 

Nicolas Legrand defended his PhD thesis entitled "Revisiting the competitive storage model as a tool for the empirical analysis of commodity price volatility" on Monday November 21th, 2016.

Abstract:

This thesis proposes an empirical and theoretical analysis of commodity price volatility using the competitive storage model with rational expectations. In essence, the underlying storage theory states that commodity prices are likely to spike when inventory levels are low and cannot buffer the market from exogenous shocks. The prime objective pursued in this dissertation is to use statistical tools to confront the storage model with the data in an attempt to gauge the empirical merit of the storage theory, identify its potential flaws and provide possible remedies for improving its explanatory power.

 

Gaspard Dumollard defended his PhD thesis entitled "Gestion en futaie régulière d'une forêt à plusieurs classes d'âge en présence d'un risque de tempête", on December 2nd, 2016.

Abstract:

The storm risk has a strong impact on forest management, directly through the damages a storm can cause and indirectly through induced precautionary behaviors.
This PhD thesis addresses the issue of even-aged forest management with multiple age-classes in presence of a storm risk and when the producer has recursive preferences. Unlike expected utility preferences, recursive preferences distinguish between risk aversion and intertemporal preferences.

Simon Bordenave defended his PhD thesis entitled "Essai sur les conséquences environnementales de la recherche et développement sur les variété agricoles", on December 8th, 2016.